Notre Dame
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
119  Kelly Curran JR 20:06
122  Rebecca Tracy SR 20:07
161  Gabby Gonzales SO 20:17
184  Alexa Aragon JR 20:20
187  Hannah Eckstein SO 20:21
212  Molly Seidel FR 20:24
275  Jessica Rydberg SR 20:32
294  Danielle Aragon FR 20:34
444  Meg Ryan JR 20:52
750  Sydni Meunier FR 21:17
804  Emily Frydrych SO 21:20
855  Angela Ryck SR 21:23
898  Katherine Stultz SO 21:26
1,266  Megan Kilbride FR 21:51
1,608  Abbey Murphy FR 22:13
1,823  McKinzie Schulz JR 22:27
2,216  Megan Heeder SO 22:53
2,318  Ryan Russ JR 23:01
National Rank #19 of 339
Great Lakes Region Rank #3 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 95.9%
Most Likely Finish 20th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 11.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 56.9%


Regional Champion 11.3%
Top 5 in Regional 96.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Kelly Curran Rebecca Tracy Gabby Gonzales Alexa Aragon Hannah Eckstein Molly Seidel Jessica Rydberg Danielle Aragon Meg Ryan Sydni Meunier Emily Frydrych
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 09/28 595 20:09 20:11 20:20 20:38 20:27 20:33 20:18 20:51
Notre Dame Invitational 09/28 1192 21:18 21:20
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 614 20:10 20:05 20:29 20:39 20:14 20:35 20:57
Big East Championships 10/26 501 20:00 20:03 20:14 20:59 20:11 20:22 20:43 20:31 20:41
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/09 532 20:03 20:11 20:18 20:15 20:13 20:28 20:48
NCAA Championship 11/17 502 20:07 20:06 20:07 20:07 20:57 20:23 21:14





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 95.9% 18.8 469 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.5 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.8 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 1.8
Region Championship 100% 2.8 99 11.3 31.7 33.4 14.6 5.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kelly Curran 95.9% 104.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Rebecca Tracy 96.0% 106.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Gabby Gonzales 95.9% 136.3
Alexa Aragon 95.9% 144.5
Hannah Eckstein 95.9% 145.7
Molly Seidel 95.9% 154.0
Jessica Rydberg 95.9% 176.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kelly Curran 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.6 4.7 4.8 6.3 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.1 5.6 4.6 4.5 3.9 4.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 1.9
Rebecca Tracy 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.7 4.2 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 6.1 5.4 5.6 4.8 4.6 4.7 3.6 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.5
Gabby Gonzales 21.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.5 4.1 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.5 4.4 3.5 3.9 3.9
Alexa Aragon 24.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.8 3.7
Hannah Eckstein 24.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.9 3.3 3.9 3.6 4.4 3.8 4.3
Molly Seidel 27.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.6 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.6
Jessica Rydberg 33.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.8 2.5 2.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 11.3% 100.0% 11.3 11.3 1
2 31.7% 100.0% 31.7 31.7 2
3 33.4% 100.0% 0.2 0.4 5.4 9.5 8.3 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 33.4 3
4 14.6% 99.2% 0.1 0.2 1.3 3.0 3.1 2.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 14.5 4
5 5.5% 83.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 4.6 5
6 2.5% 14.5% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.4 6
7 0.8% 5.3% 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 7
8 0.2% 0.2 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 95.9% 11.3 31.7 0.2 0.5 5.7 10.8 11.8 8.9 6.1 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 4.1 43.0 52.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 98.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Toledo 71.9% 1.0 0.7
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 53.9% 2.0 1.1
UCLA 39.1% 1.0 0.4
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Yale 24.0% 1.0 0.2
SMU 23.6% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.9% 2.0 0.3
Wisconsin 12.8% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Northwestern 7.9% 2.0 0.2
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 2.0 0.1
North Carolina 2.9% 2.0 0.1
BYU 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.4
Minimum 3.0
Maximum 16.0